MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF INVESTMENTS IN THE FIXED CAPITAL OF ORGANIZATIONS OF THE KALININGRAD REGION

Due to the actively changing geopolitical and economic conditions of management, investments in fixed capital of enterprises and organizations are becoming a driver of economic growth and import substitution, a rather important indicator of the economic expectations of business entities for the long term and the result of measures already taken to develop business in the regions. Investment in fixed assets of organizations in the region is becoming an increasingly important indicator for research and forecasting. This paper presents the results of a multivariate correlation-regression analysis of investments in fixed capital of enterprises and organizations of the Kaliningrad region and forecasting this indicator for the near future. It was determined that among the factors affecting investments in fixed capital of the Kaliningrad region, the most significant are: the inflation rate (with an increase in the inflation rate by 1 %, investments are reduced by 594 billion rubles), the key rate of the Central Bank (with an increase in the key rate by 1 %, investments in fixed capital decrease by 291 billion rubles), the index of entrepreneurial confidence (with an increase in this indicator by 1 point, investments increase by 2 billion rubles), the degree of depreciation of fixed assets. The forecast volumes of investments in fixed assets tend to grow, in 2023 they will amount to 78.24 billion rubles, in 2024 — 84.19 billion rubles, which shows the intention of economic entities to increase the potential of enterprises by investing in fixed assets, which can be regarded, among other things, as a factor in increasing the possibilities of import substitution, and as a result of the efforts already undertaken by the regional authorities to create a favorable investment climate, despite the unfavorable economic conditions.

investments, fixed capital, multivariate model, forecasting, Kaliningrad region, fixed assets, import substitution, multivariate analysis, investment activity, correlation and regression analysis

Tishchuk M. O., Nazmova A. A. Multifactor analysis and forecasting of investments in the fixed capital of organizations of the Kaliningrad region. Business. Education. Law, 2023, no. 1, pp. 68—72. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.62.522.