MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PARAMETERS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND THE STATE OF PUBLIC DEBT

In the article, the author considers an urgent problem related to the possibilities of the processes that are taking place in the financial market in connection with dynamic changes in such indicators as the volume of public debt, the M2 monetary aggregate and the GDP indicator. It is indicated that in the post-Soviet space there is a negative experience in regulating macroeconomic processes, based on the provisions of economic theory, which in practice did not bring the expected results. In particular, we are talking about the fact that in the post-Soviet space, attempts to regulate the volume of money supply in order to manage inflation in terms of its stabilization often led to directly opposite results, namely, inflationary processes intensified, despite the fact that the volume of public debt increased significantly, which led to disrupting macroeconomic stability. In this regard, the solution to this problem is defined as relevant and the purpose of this article is to develop and verify a mathematical model that allows determining the dependence of the M2 monetary aggregate on the total public debt in accordance with the parameters of its safe size, taking into account the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the development of the country. The development of this model is aimed at obtaining practical results, which should be expressed in finding a specific corridor that determines the parameters of public debt security, as well as managerial decision-making on debt management. The time interval from 2006 to 2021 was selected for the study, the Russian Federation was chosen as the object of the study, and the method of mathematical modeling was used based on the use of regression analysis methodology. On the basis of statistical data for the specified period a mathematical model was developed, which demonstrates the relationship (dependence) of the monetary aggregate M2 and the indicator characterizing the volume of public debt. The constructed model reflects the dependence between these indicators and is presented in the form of a function, which is built as a result of the solution of a differential equation, which makes it possible to determine the limits of the safe volume of public debt of Russia (external and internal) in terms of its impact on the financial system of the state.The obtained results are the basis for the formation of the financial and credit policy of Russia.

finance, corridor, security, monetary aggregate, model, function, elasticity, volume, solution, control

Klunko N. S. Modeling the relationship between the parameters of the national economy and the state of public debt. Business. Education. Law, 2023, no. 1, pp. 179—185. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.62.581.