MODERN APPROACHES TO MIGRATION MODELING AND FORECASTING

The paper provides an overview of existing approaches to migration forecasting. Extrapolation, interpolation, Bayesian and other approaches are distinguished. The difficulties of migration forecasting related to the lack of actual data are shown. Migration flows are either recognized as zero, or simplistically extrapolated with a constant value for the future. As a result, migration development is reflected only very approximately. Migration is the result of a complex interaction of various social, economic and political (legal) factors within the country and abroad, which the forecaster cannot always fully take into account and accurately predict. When predicting population reproduction, not one, but several assumed causes of migration should be taken into account in order to adequately reflect the range of unfavorable, sometimes highly heterogeneous migration trends. Within the framework of the multicausal approach, the A. Rogers model and its modified version are considered, which allows reflecting in more detail the features of the demographic behavior of migrants. The Bayesian approach to forecasting international migration proposed by J. Bijak is shown. Hypotheses regarding the demographic behavior of immigrants are put forward and analyzed, in particular, hypotheses of socialization, adaptation, destruction, and family values. The model proposed by the authors makes various assumptions about migration (depending on age and gender). Not only the new arrivals are taken into account, but also the generations of their descendants with appropriate assumptions about fertility and mortality. At the same time, on the one hand, the processes of adaptation of the birth rate and mortality of migrants to the indicators of local residents are modeled, and on the other hand, the long-term impact of migration on the population of the country of arrival is analyzed in detail.

population reproduction, migration modeling, migration forecasting, hypotheses of demographic behavior of immigrants, extrapolation, interpolation, A. Rogers` multicausal approach, multi-regional approach, J. Bijak`s Bayesian approach, migrant subpopulations

Dorokhina E. Yu., Brashchin R. M. Modern approaches to migration modeling and forecasting. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2024;1(66):134—140. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2024.66.932.