FORECASTING OF THE COST OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION IN RUSSIA

The article presents the econometric study and mathematical modeling of the growth of the housing construction costs per square meter in Russia on the basis of statistical data of Rosstat for the period of 2001–2011. Instead of linear time series model, which was valid until 2009, the autoregression model (ARM) has been proposed for simulating the rising of the cost of housing construction. The methods of correlation analysis are used to show that the best results for the forecasting of construction cost per square meter is provided by a linear autoregression model of the first order. The statistical significance of the parameters found by ARM has been proven; the economic forecasting has been performed, and the confident interval of forecasting has been estimated.

time series, linear mathematical model, cost of housing construction, autoregressive model (ARM), autocorrelation, autocorrelation function, lag, forecasting, correlation analysis, coefficient of determination, regression analysis, adequacy, forecast limits