METHODICAL BASES OF ESTABLISHING AN INDICATOR FOR DIAGNOSTICS OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

The article examines forecasting of corporate bankruptcies. Modern economic conditions determine the desire of researchers to improve the accuracy of forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of companies. However, the analysis of applicability of current functioning western models for evaluating probability of bankruptcy indicate low level of effectiveness due to multiple reasons. To prove this, Hypothesis 1 was advanced that the most popular bankruptcy forecasting models are effective, that is, adapted to companies with the “Construction” type of economic activity. The conducted empirical studies did not allow confirming the hypothesis put forward. This is because companies have properties of an extremely unstable economic condition, which, under the influence of changes in the internal and external environment, can lose stability and change the financial characteristics of companies. The article proves that the development of a new approach allowing incorporating Russian intricacies of conducting business, accounting principles, dynamic transformation of external and internal environment and model indicators excluding dry determinism, is especially pertinent. Hypothesis 2 was put forward and tested on the possibility of constructing an integral indicator for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of companies with the type of economic activity Construction, which corresponds to the principle of dynamic transformation and therefore lack determinism of indicators included in its composition. The forecast interval, as a rule, is from 1 to 3 years. When testing hypothesis 2, an integral bankruptcy probability index was constructed for Russian companies with the type of economic activity “Construction”. Based on the outcome of conducted review it was proven that a given indicator gives a more precise forecast of bankruptcy probability.

accounting reporting, financial sustainability, financial ratios, bankrupt companies, corporate bankruptcy, methodology of forecasting corporate bankruptcy, determinism of indicators included in the model, dynamic transformation probit‑regression of evaluating bankruptcy probability, probit‑regression quality.

Savelyeva M. Yu., Vasilyeva N. S., Bausova V. V. Methodical bases of establishing an indicator for diagnostics of corporate bankruptcies. Business. Education. Law, 2019, no. 2, pp. 163–171. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2019.47.265.