CALCULATION OF THE EFFICIENCY OF LAUNCHING ON THE FOREIGN MARKET OF A PRODUCT WITH A HIGH INNOVATION COMPONENT USING NEURAL NETWORKS

The article is devoted to the development of methods for calculating the effectiveness of launching into the foreign market with high innovative product, in the modern digital economy. X‑ray cargo inspection systems made in Russia (IDK), CT‑2630М are considered as an innovative product. These systems allow the IDK to greatly increase the speed of the vehicle checks at security points, as they allow obtaining X‑ray image of the cargo transported by the vehicle without the necessity of opening and conducting manual inspections. In this article we use the method of neural networks of direct distribution adapted by the authors to predict the economic data of IDK placement with the check of prediction error by the method of integrated model of autoregression and moving average ARIMA. The analyzed global market is 243 countries; the study is conducted on thirteen parameters related to the quantitative assessment of potential locations of inspection systems and more than twenty economic parameters of countries. There is also made a segmentation of countries into three segments: highly competitive, low‑competitive and mixed. The article examines only a mixed segment of countries, which is optimal for this product from the level of competition or the level of innovation and solvency of the country on the other hand. In conclusion, the economic efficiency of entering the market of an innovative product for the found segment of countries is calculated using the formula of net present value NPV. The calculation of NPV takes into account such parameters as the current level of inflation of the country, the level of literacy of the population, affecting the cost of training, logistics costs for the delivery of equipment. The stability of the resulting solution is also analyzed by adding a small variation of the input data.

economic efficiency, NPV, neural networks, information technologies, globalization, innovative product, foreign market, X‑ray cargo inspection systems, forecasting, ARIMA, segmentation.

Dubolazov V. A., Somov A. G. Calculation of the efficiency of launching on the foreign market of a product with a high innovation component using neural networks. Business. Education. Law, 2019, no. 2, pp. 27–32. DOI: 10.25683/ VOLBI.2019.47.269.