THE IMPACT OF OIL QUOTATION ON THE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF OIL COMPANIES

The development of the oil and gas complex is of key importance in the countryʼs economy today. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of fluctuations in the quotations of oil in the world market on the state of the oil company is of particular importance. The paper analyzed the dependence of Brent crude oil quotes in ruble equivalent and the main performance indicators of Rosneft PJSC, and revealed a direct dependence on the oil price indicators used by the “golden rule of the economy”: capital, revenue, profit. An assessment was made of implementation of the “golden rule” over time, an assumption was made about the significance of oil quotes growth over the two‑year period after the crisis conditions for compliance with these rules. The elasticity of the main indicators of the oil company from the effect of oil quotes has been revealed, it has been concluded that the revenue elasticity is high and the insignificant effect of oil price fluctuations on the change in the company’s profit is made. In the strategic planning of the oil company, it was proposed to use the assessment of the impact of changes in oil quotes on the main items of the balance sheet to account for various development options from pessimistic to optimistic. On the example of one of the branches of Rosneft Oil Company, which is engaged in oil production, a correlation analysis of oil quotes and accounting articles was made, significant correlations were revealed. The forecast was based on the macro forecasts of the Central Bank for the next two years (baseline scenario, optimistic forecast and negative scenario), suggesting significant fluctuations in oil prices from $ 35 to $ 75 per barrel. On the basis of the regression analysis, predictive models were constructed for three development options (pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic) and the values of dependent balance sheet items were estimated.

oil and gas complex, oil quotation, oil company, golden rule of economics, correlation analysis, regression analysis, balance sheet, profit, revenue, capital.

Boldanova E. V., Rosokha E. V. The impact of oil quotation on the performance indicators of oil companies. Business. Education. Law, 2019, no. 2, pp. 82–86. DOI: DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2019.47.217.