IMPROVEMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY OF INVESTMENTS EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION INTO INNOVATIONS IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE PROBABILITY OF PROJECT RISKS

The options of making decisions on the expediency of an innovative project which is based on the methodologically correct and modern approaches to its assessment are considered in the article. This work is the logical continuation of the article “Evaluation of the efficiency of investment in innovation in industry„ published earlier. It develops some provisions on the efficiency of investments into innovations by the means of net present value calculation, the analysis of sensitivity and the decision tree creation in chemical industry. It considers the definition the probability of the events, which act as the main factor, affecting the results of the project assessment and the investment decision adoption. The author considers the expert and statistical approaches to the definition of the probability of some events. The use of the practical computer technique the research of the probability distributions statistics (bootstrap) is offered for improving the project analysis. The probability distributions of the innovative project of production of chemical (formalin) were received, the average values of changes in its target parameters (the Euro-Ruble exchange rate and demand volumes), the tree of decisions is created, its return analysis is carried out and the expectations of net present value are calculated. As the result it reveals the existence of exogenetic factors, which can have a positive impact on the project. Thus, the author proves the hypothesis, that the application of correct methods and criteria of evaluating the effeciency of investment in innovative products allows to evaluate various options of the project implementation, taking into account its risks, to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the project effeciency and thus to make the best investment decision. The received results can be used by the chemical industry enterprises during the assessment and justification of the investment attractiveness of innovative projects and for making decisions on their implementation.

innovation, innovation projects, investment projects, investment decision, investment in innovation, innovative product, decision-making under risk, economic growth, added value, computer research methods.

Vasilyeva E. Yu. Improvement of the methodology of investments effectiveness evaluation into innovations in the chemical industry by taking into account the probability of project risks. Business. Education. Law, 2020, no. 2, pp. 214–220. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2020.51.255.