DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE OF THE RUSSIAN RUBLE

The exchange rate is an extremely important parameter of the country’s economy, which determines not only aspects of the interaction of the country’s economy with the world economy, but also other economic and social aspects. The exchange rate has a direct impact on exports and imports, portfolio and direct investments, largely determines inflationary processes, including the well-being of the population as a whole. In this regard, this study seems to be very relevant, as it answers the question of a quantitative assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate of the Russian ruble. On the basis of graphical and correlation analysis of the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and fundamental macroeconomic indicators, an equilibrium exchange rate model was constructed. The main method in constructing the model was correlation-regression analysis, as well as its modification — decomposition of the model into thematic blocks of indicators with their subsequent evaluation as independent parts. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the two models was evaluated. The model includes the main macroeconomic indicators that have shown their influence on the dynamics of the dollar-ruble exchange rate and which lay the foundation for the current market value. As a result, two regression equations were obtained that evaluate the influence of various factors (such as purchasing power parity, oil price, interest rates, stock indices, etc.). Finally, an assessment of the accuracy of the obtained models and their suitability for macroeconomic forecasting is given. This study allows us to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Russian currency in the short and medium term horizons, all other things being equal. The resulting equations can be used for the purpose of forecasting the dollar-ruble exchange rate.

exchange rate, equilibrium ruble exchange rate, purchasing power parity, exchange rate factors, inflation, crude oil price, trade balance, balance of services, equilibrium exchange rate model, exchange rate forecasting

Sorokozherdyev K. G., Anisov A. A Development of a model for estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Russian ruble. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2023;2(63):147—155. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.63.623.