FORECAST OF POWER CAPACITY OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF RUSSIA FOR 2020 AND 2030

Assessment of the possibility of reduction of power capacity of gross domestic product for 40% by 2020 in comparison with 2007 for the purpose of implementation of the Decree of the RF President No.889 is provided in the article. The one-factorial regression model of dependence of the gross domestic product on consumption of fuel and energy resources is developed; data on nominal and real gross domestic product is provided in dynamics from 2000 to 2011; assessment of the model value is carried out; the main baseline data of the models are given; the main scenarios of social and economic development of the country (conservative, innovative and forced) are determined; the forecast of the gross domestic product change according to the specified scenarios till 2020 and 2030 is executed. The conclusion on impossibility of achieving the target indicator neither in 2020 nor in 2030 is made.

energy saving, energy efficiency, gross domestic product, nominal gross domestic product, real gross domestic product, gross domestic product deflator, power capacity of gross domestic product, regression model, scenarios of social and economic development, fuel and energy resources, importance of model