CAPACITY METHOD OF ANALYZING RARE EVENTS IN THE TRADE OF VARIOUS GOODS

It is difficult to overestimate the role of analysis and forecasting in the modern world. There are many methods of analysis. An overwhelming number of papers and studies are devoted to the analysis of frequent events. The analysis of rare events devoted much less work. Research methods of rare events are also much less. Existing research methods have a large error. The paper proposes a methodology for studying the rare events, which is based on the sources of events distinguishing and restoration of parameters of the proposed process, which is the basis of such events occurrence. After restoration of the process parameters, the regularity is searched by any other known methods, after which the regularities are extrapolated to the future. After extrapolating the process parameters, the process itself is started to obtain a forecast of the time moments of occurrence of the next events. One of the most common processes in the economics is the process of consumption or expenditure of products. In this case, stocks can be modeled as emptying capacity. An approach that restores the rate of consumption of the stock from the history of rare events is proposed, this method is called the “capacity method”. If we apply this method to the data obtained in the simulation, then the accuracy of restoring the original laws will be extremely high. The article demonstrates the use of the capacitive method for analyzing rare events on real data in trading various goods. The following is analyzed: data on the supply of kvass to a supermarket, a beer shop and a network of wine shops; data on car purchases by a legal entity for their subsequent sale; data on individual purchases of cakes and coffee. It is shown that the use of this method will allow you to identify certain patterns that are necessary to predict future events. Some data requirements for using this method are defined.

capacity method, rare events, analysis, forecast, product consumption, trade, kvass, cars, coffee, cakes.

Korablev Yu. A., Golovanova P. S., Kostritsa T. A. Capacity method of analyzing rare events in the trade of various goods. Business. Education. Law, 2019, no. 3, pp. 121–131. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2019.48.313.