PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TIMBER INDUSTRY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE CONDITIONS OF SANCTIONS

In the conditions of rising prices for raw materials in the world, enterprises of the timber industry (hereinafter-TI) began to export more timber products, including to European countries. But with the introduction of economic sanctions, the export of TI products to unfriendly countries has been suspended. One of the objectives of the Strategy for the development of the timber industry until 2030 is to increase the contribution of the TI to 1 % in the structure of GDP, the achievement of the goal is under pressure due to a possible sharp decline in the production of TI products and a decrease in exports of products. The author analyzes the export and import of products of the forest industry: lumber, pellets, cellulose, sanitary and hygienic paper in order to further predict the dynamics of indicators. The structure of the export of TI products is considered in order to determine the possible potential losses of organizations exporting logging products (due to economic sanctions), as well as the possibility of redistributing the structure of sales of manufactured products to the domestic market. The analysis of timber exports reveales that China’s share in the exports of timber products is significant. The author concludes that the domestic market for construction materials can change in two directions: Timber prices may increase due to the fact that there will be a decrease in the number of products produced. The threat is the fact that the fixed assets of lumber companies consist of 80 % foreign equipment, the supply and service of which has been suspended. Prices for timber products will fall due to oversupply. This may happen because the demand for timber in friendly countries will be low and all products intended for export will be redistributed to the domestic market. It will take time to build new logistical chains with friendly countries, and during this period, prices for forest products may be subject to significant fluctuations.

timber industry, export and import of timber, priority investment projects, unfriendly countries, construction materials market, sanctions, lumber, wood pellets, cellulose

Terenteva V. D. Prospects for the development of the timber industry of the Russian Federation in the conditions of sanctions. Business. Education. Law, 2022, no. 3, pp. 203—208. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2022.60.378.