DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN RUSSIAN REGIONS: IN SEARCH OF GROWTH SOURCES

Global demographic trends in developed countries of this century are associated with a decline in the birth rate, population ageing, urbanization of society, increasing migration flows, and deteriorating demographic indicators. Demographic processes in Russia as a whole correspond to these trends, when against the background of negative natural decrease, reduction in the total fertility rate, reduction in the number of marriages and other negative trends, the country’s population is declining. The reversal of the negative trend in Russia’s population decline, which began as a result of the state policy in 2009, was broken in 2019 under the influence of such external shocks as COVID-19, a special military operation in Ukraine, the geopolitical inversion of the world. The analysis carried out in the paper showed that in terms of the total fertility rate, Russia has only twice overcome the regime of simple reproduction over the past 30 years: from 1990—1991 and in 2012—2017. The regional section showed that the number of Russian regions that exceeded the threshold value of the total fertility rate, providing the mode of simple reproduction, decreased from 73 in 2016 to 23 in 2021. The solution to the demographic issue should be the national policy based on the principle of coherence, when the coordinated development of the three components economy, institutions, culture will have a positive impact on the demographic trend and allow reversing negative trends in demography. Theoretical and practical significance of the work lies in the search of optimal options for the formation of the state demographic strategy, the conclusions of which can be used in the activities of public authorities.

global trends, demography, demographic transformations, natural decrease, migration processes, population, coherence principle, aging society, total fertility rate, urbanization

Ekimova N. A., Gaganov A. E. Demographic trends in Russian regions: in search of growth sources. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2023;3(64):60—65. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.64.707.