DETERMINING THE VECTOR AND LONG-TERM SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN COAL INDUSTRY

The coal industry in Russia is influenced by multiple factors. Recently, external economic factors associated with increased sanction pressure, decarbonization of developed countries’ economies, and the implementation of “green” financing principles have become more pronounced. The combination of positive and negative factors determines the direction of the industry’s development. Economic instability and uncertainty make it difficult to understand the industry’s development trajectory. Resolving this issue will enable informed decisions on adjusting the strategy for coal industry development. This article presents an original methodology for assessing the current state and direction of coal industry development. Its application allows for the construction of a vector of the industry’s development, where the value of the dimensionless integral evaluation of production, product, trade-logistics, spatial, and innovation components of the industry’s development is plotted on one axis. The projection of the vector on this axis reflects the speed of the industry’s development, while the angle of inclination relative to the time axis indicates improvement or deterioration in the industry’s state. The results of testing the methodology on real data show that the impact of positive and negative factors is nearly equal, resulting in a marginal growth rate of the industry’s overall state. If the strength of these factors remains unchanged, the long-term perspective will see only a slight improvement in the industry’s condition. Under a pessimistic scenario of intensifying negative factors, the industry’s state may deteriorate. Such limited prospects are unacceptable for businesses and the state, necessitating the adaptation of the industry’s structure to emerging economic realities.

coal industry in Russia, industry development factors, global trends, development direction, development speed, scenario forecast, fourth energy transition, decarbonization, structural-innovative transformations

Goncharov M. S., Kalinskiy O. I. Determining the vector and long-term scenarios for the development of the Russian coal industry. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2023;3(64):178—183. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.64.757.