AGING POPULATION AND THE VOLUME OF NECESSARY INVESTMENTS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF RUSSIA)

Aging population is a long-term trend of population development in many countries and regions of the world, including Russia. The study of aging population in connection with economic processes started at the beginning of the 20th century, when the processes of industrialization and urbanization accelerated in Western European countries. Modern research in the field of aging population is focused on the labor force, consumption, savings, fiscal policy and social security systems. A number of studies reveal ambiguous effects of aging on economic growth. Currently, the elaboration of methodological tools is relevant to measure the impact of aging population on the economic development of countries and regions. The availability of such tools would make it possible to more adequately assess the effectiveness and adjust, if necessary, the demographic and socio-economic policy of the state. Within the framework of the study, the modified neoclassical model of economic growth by R. Solow, previously proposed by the authors, and allowing to quantify the impact of aging population on the function of necessary investments and, as a consequence, on economic growth, was tested on the basis of Russian statistical data for the period from 2001 to 2021. The analysis of the dynamics of the demographic structure of the population in the Russian Federation showed an upward trend in the proportion of the elderly population and confirmed the previously made assumptions of the authors regarding the influence of demographic processes on the angle of inclination of the required investments in the modified Solow model. From the point of view of the influence of this factor on economic growth, during the period under study, the situation developed according to two scenarios: from 2001 to 2011, minimal positive effects were observed, and from 2011 to 2021 negative ones.

aging population, neoclassical model, production function, capital ratio, Russian Federation, Solow model, necessary investments, actual investments, demographic transition, economic growth

Guo L., Zonin N. A., Borodavkina N. Yu., Savkin D. A. Aging population and the volume of necessary investments (on the example of Russia). Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2023;3(64):135—142. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.64.739.