ASSESSMENT OF IMPORT DEPENDENCE AND RESILIENCE OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF THE REGION TO SANCTIONS RISKS AND EXTERNAL RESTRICTIONS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN)

Today’s geopolitical challenges undoubtedly have a strong impact on economic relations between the countries. This situation cannot but cause concern about adaptation to new realities both on the part of the whole country and on the part of each region individually. Conducting scientific research aimed at developing methods to identify the most import-dependent types of activities in the regional economy is an integral part of modern regional policy. Article attempts to solve this problem. Study offers a comprehensive methodology for assessing import dependence and resilience of the regional economy to sanctions risks and external restrictions on the example of the Republic of Tatarstan. The author’s model is based on modeling changes in import volumes and determining the possibility of restoring the affected sectors. Vulnerability from imports is determined through regression analysis, and recovery capabilities are determined through an integral recovery index. As part of the simulation, two matrices were constructed – the current state and the predicted one. The use of the author’s tools made it possible to divide all the analyzed activities into four groups, two of which require operational and strategic decisions on the part of government agencies. Such decisions should contribute to the creation of the most favorable conditions that will provoke the accelerated implementation of import substitution measures. In turn, this will lead to the acquisition and preservation of technological independence of the country’s economy and individual regions, which will further contribute to ensuring sustainable and competitive dynamics of the socio-economic development of the region.

import substitution, import dependence, sustainability of economic growth, region, Republic of Tatarstan, sanctions pressure, foreign trade, transnational supply chains, recovery efficiency, industrial sectors of the economy

Mikhalevich P. O. Assessment of import dependence and resilience of the industrial sector of the region to sanctions risks and external restrictions (on the example of the Republic of Tatarstan). Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2024;3(68):79—85. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2024.68.1055.