|PDF:||Author(s):||Zayats O. A.,|
|Number of journal:||4(17)||Date:||November 2011|
In article the character of chronological fluctuations of productivity of the basic grain crops in Volgograd region and the possibility of its account for the forecasting has been reviewed. For revealing the cyclic component in the dynamics of productivity the spectral analysis of these rows for the period of 1950–2009 has been carried out. The spectral analysis is applied to researches of a business cycle and is based on the use of the function that characterizes distribution of a share of a dispersion of the time row that is brought by a cyclic component, on the frequencies of its harmonics. As a result of application of the spectral analysis to the first differences in the time rows of productivity of the winter wheat, spring wheat and a rye, the short cycles for 2–4 years, as well as the cycles average in duration, which account allows constructing more accurate look-ahead models, have been revealed.
the spectral analysis, productivity, grain crops, time rows, forecasting, business cycles, periodogram, spectral density, a number of Fure, duration of a cycle