FACTORS, TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF RURAL POPULATION DEVELOPMENT AND RURAL AREAS SUSTAINABILITYOF OF THE VORONEZH REGION

The article considers the trends and prospects of rural population development in the Voronezh region, the problems of achieving a sustainable state of rural areas. The factors and peculiarities of rural population dynamics are revealed, the assessment of territorial shifts in its settlement in the Voronezh region for 1970-2023 and forecasts of the number of inhabitants for 2030-2100 are made. The study used mathematical and statistical, literary, system-structural methods and forecasting methods. The statistical basis of the work was the information of the Federal State Statistics Service and databases of municipalities of the Russian Federation. There is a great interrelation between demographic processes with the general tendency of constant demographic decline in rural areas. There is also a great interrelation between demographic processes for the population of different ages under the general trend of constant demographic decline in rural areas. Consequently, it is not migration outflow of population, but low birth rate that determines the dynamics of rural population in the region. At the same time, the improvement of relative indicators in various demographic processes occurs against the background of a general decline in the potential of the rural population of the region The assessment of trends and forecasting of the development of the rural population allow us to draw conclusions about the need for fundamental changes in socio-economic policy in rural areas. In the future, given the existing trends, the periphery of the Voronezh region should move to a new stage of functioning, when the number of inhabitants in the villages will not allow maintaining even the social and domestic infrastructure. The region needs a full-fledged support of large families. Births of the third and all subsequent children should be actively stimulated at the level of the federal maternity capital. The amount of subsidies and allowances for large families should be raised, and the limit of personal income tax deduction should be increased. Special migration and socio-economic policies are needed for the most regressive.

rural population, Voronezh region, region, municipal district, rural area, sustainable development, age structure, dynamics, reproduction, infrastructure, forecasting

Krupko A. E., Rogozina R. E., Shentseva L. N. Factors, trends and prospects of rural population development and rural areas sustainabilityof of the Voronezh region. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2024;4(69):100—107. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2024.69.1135.