DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORIES OF THE RUSSIA-CHINA TRANSPORT CORRIDOR IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
Back to articles of current journal| PDF: |  |
Author(s): | Pak M. V., Popova J. V., Vorobjev V. S., |
| Number of journal: | 4(69) | Date: | November 2024 |
| Annotation: | In the conditions of the existing international economic system, political, economic and scientific problems have arisen in substantiating the directions for the development of the North Siberian Railway through the coal-rich Kuznetsk Basin with access to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Urumqi to ensure the development of both natural resources adjacent to the North Siberian Railway and to Kuzbass and Achinsk coal deposits with the potential for developing container transportation from China to Russia. Therefore, the problem of supplementing the promising contours of the development of the transport system of the Arctic part of Russia along the Sabetta — Urumqi meridional international transport corridor becomes very urgent. Insufficient study of this territory significantly increases the cost and complicates the implementation of projects in the region. The purpose of this article is to assess the effectiveness of the development of the Sabetta — Urumqi international transport corridor in conditions of uncertainty. The subject of the study is the patterns and principles of forming the routes of transport corridors. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the scientific substantiation of scenarios for the development of the Sabetta — Urumqi transport corridor and the assessment of the effectiveness of routes under conditions of uncertainty. The work applies methods for assessing the economic efficiency of various projects in conditions of radical and probabilistic uncertainty, using the Hurwitz, Bayes, Wald, Laplace, Savage criteria. The results of the study will expand the scientific and methodological base of predictive studies necessary for the formation of key areas of strategic development of the Russian transport system in accordance with the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 with a forecast period up to 2035. | ||
| Keywords: | transport corridor, investment project, uncertainty criteria, economic efficiency assessment, transport strategy, North-Siberian Mainline, freight transportation, energy resources, investment analysis, net present value |
||
| For citation: | Pak M. V., Vorobjev V. S., Popova J. V. Development trajectories of the Russia-China transport corridor in conditions of uncertainty. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2024;4(69):72—78. DOI: 10.25683/ VOLBI.2024.69.1126. |
||