ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL INFLATION FACTORS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELING (USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE VOLGOGRAD REGION)

The article builds a factor econometric model for forecasting inflation in the Volgograd region. The authors selected regressors that influence demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation, and assess the expected inflation rate (business price expectations) as well as the cost of imported goods and components (dollar to ruble exchange rate). These included the weighted average value of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation key rate in a given month, in %; the volume of ruble loans provided to resident individuals, in million rubles; the volume of ruble loans provided to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs, in million rubles; deposits and other funds raised from individuals in rubles, in million rubles; the average nominal exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble for the period, in rubles per dollar; business price expectations, and others. After checking for multicollinearity and eliminating the variables with insignificant coefficients from the regression equation, the following regressors were retained: volume of ruble loans provided to resident individuals, in million rubles; average nominal exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble for the period, rubles per dollar; business price expectations. The model can be used for forecasting, with due improvement. With a slightly lower inflation rate in the Volgograd region, business price expectations are much higher than at the national level. Anti-inflation measures at the regional level can include managing inflation expectations, combating monopolization of regional markets, regulating tariffs of natural monopolies, and supporting local producers.

inflation, regional inflation, factors of regional inflation, business price expectations, correlation and regression analysis, econometric models, inflation forecasting, loan volume, dollar exchange rate, anti-inflation measures

Ledeneva M. V., Shamray-Kurbatova L. V. Assessment of regional inflation factors based on econometric modeling (using the example of the Volgograd region). Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2025;4(73):23—29. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2025.73.1467.