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KEY INVESTMENT TRENDS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE INFLUENCE OF CENTRAL BANK MONETARY POLICY

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PDF: Author(s): Goncharova M. V., Sidorov A. V.,
Number of journal: 4(73) Date: December 2025
Annotation:

The study systematizes how the monetary policy regimes of the central banks of the United States, the Eurozone and Russia redistribute the attractiveness of five key asset classes: bank deposits, bonds, equities, gold, and real estate. The theoretical section details transmission channels—interest rates, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate—and their effects on the cost of capital and asset returns. The empirical section compares the paths of policy rates and portfolio flows in 2024–2025 and conducts a correlation analysis of links between central banks` decisions and aggregate investment indicators. The results show that during policy tightening it is rational to raise exposure to deposits and short-/medium-duration bonds (including floaters), while demand for equities and property typically weakens; gold preserves its role as a hedging component amid elevated geopolitical and financial uncertainty. During policy easing, preferences shift toward long-duration fixed-coupon bonds, equities, and property; low or declining real rates also support the relative attractiveness of precious metals. Russian specificities are highlighted: the mortgage market’s high sensitivity to the key rate and the system-forming role of government bonds in shaping the yield curve. The divergence of monetary stances across the USA, euro area, and Russia in 2024–2025 creates distinctive interest-rate differentials that accelerate the redistribution of global liquidity and prompt short-term capital movements across regions.

Keywords:

monetary policy, key rate, inflation, interest rate differentials, bonds, stocks, bank deposits, real estate, gold, capital flows

For citation:

Sidorov A. V., Goncharova M. V. Key investment trends in the context of the influence of central bank monetary policy. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2025;4(73):74—81. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2025.73.1438.