PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL-BLACK-EARTH DISTRICT UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF POLITICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

Currently, the socio-economic development of the country’s regions due to the external threats is characterized by significant instability, which greatly complicates the possibilities of their mathematical modeling and forecasting. To predict the development of regions, a lot of methods of economic and mathematical modeling have been developed, each of which has drawbacks that limit their application. Therefore, in this article we used an integrated approach to forecasting the socio-economic development of the Central Development Bank on the basis of both long and short time series, which makes it possible to make qualitative estimates of various types of forecast models under conditions of instability. In models built on the basis of long series, the main role is played by the dynamics of indicators. Extrapolations based on a long series provide an opportunity to adequately assess overall development trends, but are generally unsuitable for forecasting in a changing socio-economic situation. The growth models of industrial and agricultural production, regional product are more accurate, but they also do not show sufficient adequacy to the processes of socio-economic development in recent years. In models based on short series, the nature of the structural interaction of economic indicators is assessed, which can be described through the indirect growth rates. Particularly noteworthy are the models with adjustable growth rates, the forecast results for which turned out to be the most expected. It is these models, with a corresponding expert assessment of future economic growth rates that can be used to the greatest extent as applied ones. Based on our research, we can conclude that models based on short-term series are quite adequate and can be used in forecasts of socio-economic development of regions and municipalities. The most promising, in our opinion, are models with regulated growth rates, on the basis of which it is possible to build an adaptive matrix predictor with a custom parameter. The study is characterized by a wide coverage of the problems of forecasting the development of the Central Development District, which allows it to be useful for specialists from municipal and regional government bodies.

model, matrix, predictor, growth rate, central black-earth region, extrapolation, socio-economic development, agriculture, industry, gross regional product.

Krupko A. E., Fetisov Yu. M., Rogozina R. E. Problems of forecasting of socio-economic development of the Central-Black-Earth district under the conditions of political and socio-economic instability. Business. Education. Law, 2020, no. 1, pp. 302–309. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2020.50.181.