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STATISTICAL STUDY OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE MATING AND DIVORCE RATE OF THE RUSSIAN POPULATION

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PDF: Author(s): Ledneva O. V., Tsypin A. P.,
Number of journal: 2(55) Date: May 2021
Annotation:

The past 30 years since the founding of the Russian Federation have been marked by a number of trials and difficulties, both for the country’s economy and the society as a whole. The problem of assessing the influence of factors on the indicators of marriage and divorce, considered in this work, occupies a key place in the analysis of the natural movement of the population. To measure the degree of correlation of exogenous socio-economic indicators on the variation of marriage and divorce rates in the regions of Russia, we used such methods of statistical science as descriptive statistics, graphical, tabular, and correlation-regression. The application of statistical methods to the object of research made it possible to conclude the following: the change in the paradigm of economic development of the republics of the USSR in 1991 led to the transformation of the social sphere and society, as a result, the institution of the family lost its position and at the current time we observe low marriage rate with a high rate of divorce in post-Soviet countries, the Russian Federation being no exception; a statistical analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators of the state of marriage in Russia showed that the growth in the general marriage rate that was outlined in the early 2000s was replaced by a decline in the early 2010s. In turn, the divorce rate in the last five years has varied around the 4 ‰ mark. Comparing the trajectories of the two indicators, it can be argued that in the long run the levels of the time series will intersect, this will mean the disintegration of each concluded marriage; a spatial analysis of the variation in the values of marriage and divorce rates in the regions of Russia revealed a pattern that consists in a high number of broken marriages in donor regions and a low level in recipient regions, mainly the republics of the North Caucasus.

Keywords:

demographics, population, statistics, marriage rate, divorce rate, dynamics, modeling, regression, national security, natural movement of the population, social priorities.

For citation:

Ledneva O. V., Tsypin A. P. Statistical study of factors affecting the mating and divorce rate of the Russian population. Business. Education. Law, 2021, no. 2, pp. 90—96. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2021.55.234.