INFLUENCE OF THE MONETARY BASE AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MONETARY POLICY ON INFLATION IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES

The article analyzes the influence of the monetary base as an instrument of monetary policy of central banks on inflation. Differences in the influence of the monetary base on the inflation rate — the consumer price index in 9 countries, namely: Russia, the USA, China, Japan, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Brazil, and India — are considered. Countries with different levels of economic development were selected for the study. The well-known methods based on econometrics have the property of defining dependence, which does not coincide with the concept of “control” in its broad sense. The paper attempts to consider the properties of the instrument of monetary policy as a control element, changing which should result in a predetermined change in the controlled factor — the economic indicator of the goal of monetary policy. Thus, the author’s study of the implementation of the “instrument — goal” principle of economic policy was carried out, using the example of the monetary base as the instrument of monetary policy, and inflation as the goal. To obtain the results of the study, a mathematical analytical apparatus was used, which takes into account the quality of the influence of the instrument of monetary policy on macroeconomic indicators that are not taken into account in classical econometric models. The article suggests that the impact of the monetary base on inflation in the period 2000—2019 had three management scenarios: the change in the monetary base determined the growth of inflation with separate periods of disruption to the reaction (Russia, the USA, Norway, China, Japan, Denmark); there was no or little response to management influences (Germany and India); transitional — close to the second scenario, with a short-term positive impact recorded from time to time (Brazil).

the “instrument-goal” principle, instrument of monetary policy, monetary base, inflation, consumer price index, mathematical analytical apparatus, quality of management, econometric methods, modeling, lag.

Afanaseva O. N. Influence of the monetary base as an instrument of monetary policy on inflation in various countries. Business. Education. Law, 2021, no. 2, pp. 177—185. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2021.55.276.