MODELING AND FORECASTING OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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Author(s): | Kurganova M. V., |
| Number of journal: | 2(75) | Date: | June 2026 |
| Annotation: | The purpose of the study presented in this work is to conduct a comprehensive structural and complex analysis aimed at identifying the characteristics of the dynamics and changes in the composition of fiscal revenues to the budget of the Samara Region for the period from 2014 to 2024. To achieve this goal, the method of econometric modeling of time series is applied, which allows not only to quantitatively assess trends but also to identify hidden patterns in the receipt of funds. Within the framework of the study, the structure of the revenue side of the regional budget of the Samara Region is analyzed in detail, with particular attention paid to the rates and nature of the growth of budget revenues. Three key revenue items are studied separately: tax revenues; non-tax revenues; gratuitous intergovernmental transfers. The structure of the regional budget of the Samara region is considered, as well as the rates and dynamics of its growth. Three revenue items are examined: tax, non-tax, and gratuitous intergovernmental transfers, and the directions of changes over the past decade are identified. An extended Dickey-Fuller test was conducted, which confirmed stationarity only of the last flow relative to the linear trend; this characteristic is typical for macroeconomic and budgetary indicators; the first two demonstrate first-order integration. Heteroscedastic volatility is noted in econometric modeling, which requires taking into account possible structural breaks and time-varying dispersion. Empirical data are identified showing differences in the dynamics of the analyzed indicators. Forecast series of the revenue parameters of the Samara Region budget for 2025–2027 are formed with the construction of confidence intervals; stochastic fiscal risks expressed in ranges of low/high probability are assessed. Based on the analysis conducted, the main directions and trends of changes in the structure and volume of revenues over the past decade are determined, which allows conclusions to be drawn about the transformation of the region’s fiscal policy and its effectiveness. | ||
| Keywords: | budget revenues, time series, stationarity, Dickey- Fuller test, forecasting, tax revenues, non-tax revenues, gratuitous transfers, budget risks, econometric modeling |
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| For citation: | Kurganova M. V. Modeling and forecasting of regional economic indicators. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2026;2(75):108—113. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2026.75.1599. |
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