THE PRACTICE OF USING SCORING MODELS FOR INSOLVENCY FORECASTING IN MEAT PROCESSING INDUSTRY
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Author(s): | D. S. Matusevich, |
| Number of journal: | 2(75) | Date: | June 2026 |
| Annotation: | Modern developments in insolvency forecasting approaches suggest the use of mathematical models, including scoring models. The use of scoring models allows for the classification of organizations into classes based on their financial stability. We examined international scoring models developed by W. Beaver and D. Durand, as well as a domestic model developed by L. V. Dontsova and N. A. Nikiforova for agricultural organizations. Using open data from the Federal Tax Service, scoring estimations were calculated using several models for organizations whose primary activity code is listed as 10.1.X “Processing and preserving meat and meat food products” with annual revenue exceeding 100 million rubles for 2021-2025. The samples contain 104-118 organizations, depending on the year. Scoring estimates for meat processing organizations obtained using foreign models are quite pessimistic – more than half of the organizations are classified as problematic or near bankruptcy, although in reality they are operating successfully. The results obtained using the model by L. V. Dontsova and N. A. Nikiforova can be considered the most optimal for assessing the potential insolvency of meat processing organizations. This is primarily due to the impact of an organization’s inventory on its operations. The calculations demonstrate a certain effectiveness of the forecasts, although they require some adjustment to the models due to the specifics of the industry under consideration. Specific features of the industry include the tendency of meat processing organizations to accumulate raw material inventories (meat, casings, spices), which formally leads to a decrease in liquidity indicators and a freeze on working capital. Inventory buildup is often accomplished with borrowed funds, which negatively impacts the organization’s financial independence and reduces profitability due to interest payments on loans. | ||
| Keywords: | insolvency forecast, financial stability, scoring models, Durand model, Beaver model, Dontsova–Nikiforova model, liquidity analysis, profitability analysis, financial independence analysis, business activity analysis, meat processing industry |
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| For citation: | Matusevich D. S. The practice of using scoring models for insolvency forecasting in meat processing industry. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2026;2(75):159—164. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2026.75.1636. |
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