MODELING THE IMPACT OF LABOR AND HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT

Labour resources are of a great importance in the socio-economic development of the region. However, there is no reflection of systematic analysis in the recent domestic research on regional development indicators, one of which is the gross regional product (GRP), labor market indicators, the living standards of the population and related indicators of education and health. The main objective of this work was to assess the impact of human resources on the gross regional product. The novelty of the research is determined not only by the set of the considered factors, but also by the assessment of the dynamics of this influence in the “pre-covid” and “covid” periods. Official statistics on 79 subjects of the Russian Federation for 2018—2021 were used for the modeling. The model was illustrated on the example of the Kaliningrad region. The multi-factor econometric model built in the course of the research includes factors characterizing human resources with the greatest degree of influence on the level of GRP: the average monthly nominal wage of employees, the average annual number of employed persons, the graduation of mid-level specialists and the number of medical stuff and hospital beds. They account for about 80 % of the explained variation of GRP with an increase of almost 2 % over the period analyzed. This model is of a practical importance for forecasting and evaluating the efficiency of state programs aimed at the socio-economic development of the territories, in particular, for the exclave region of the Russian Federation — the Kaliningrad region.

regional development, socio-economic factors, statistical and econometric analysis, correlation and regression modeling, gross regional product, labor market, living standards, education, health care, Kaliningrad region

Lukyanova N. Yu., Shchepkova I. V., Lukyanova L. M., Lisovskii M. P. Modeling the impact of labor and human capital indicators on the gross regional product. Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo = Business. Education. Law. 2023;3(64):71—77. DOI: 10.25683/VOLBI.2023.64.708.